Wizard Daily Report and Research - Monday, 22 April 2024.
- Trainer Profile (Nick Ryan)
- Wizard Ratings Results for week ending April 21
Trainer Profile - Nick Ryan
Nick Ryan was a very successful apprentice in Victoria and senior rider in Australia and rode successfully in Hong Kong and Singapore as well. Here he was Victorian Champion Apprentice and Champion Victorian Jockey. He achieved milestones only matched by Damien Oliver and Darren Gauci.
Post-riding he took up a position as foreman with Brett Cavanough. In 2014 he took out a NSW trainer's licence and later was granted a Victorian restricted licence. He relocated his small stable from Albury to Caulfield. In 2021 he obtained stables at Flemington.
Nick's first Stakes success as a trainer was Sircconi which won the Listed Winter Championship Final. His first Group 2 winner was Kissonallforcheeks which won the Let's Elope Stakes at Flemington in September 2022. His latest Stakes success was last Saturday with Material Dreams which won the (Listed) Nitschke Stakes at Morphettville.
His current stable handles around 60 horses and he trains for prominent owners such as Gerry Harvey and OTI Racing. Five years ago Nick ranked 80th in the Victorian Trainers' Premiership. In the current season he is in the top 20 (18th) in the very competitive Vic Metropolitan Trainers' Premiership.
Nick says he is a patient trainer, seeking to wait for the "right" spot for a horse. He makes use of jump-outs to condition his horses, usually in multiple trials two to three weeks before raceday, without them seeking to win, just doing solid conditioning work.
Nick Ryan - Watch and Wait
With some trainers there are indicators that are especially worth noting. It is a matter of watching and waiting for the right conditions occur. It might be that the trainer out-performs with runners having their first start after a spell, or in sprint races rather than over longer distances, or backing up for a repeat win in a given time period. When these 'key metrics' are in play it is worthwhile paying particular attention to the runner.
Some key metrics for Nick Ryan follow. All results listed were profitable on flat stakes and show the win percentage and the impact value for two odds ranges.
2YO horses
- Insufficient runners for any assessment.
3YO horses
- Runs from a spell: First race start: 30.0% 1.4iv
- Runs from a spell: 1st up: 36.4% 1.6iv
4YO and older horses
- Runs from a spell: 2nd up: 27.3%, 1.3iv
- Runs from a spell: 3rd up: 23.4%, 1.1iv
- Runs from a spell: 4th up: 25.5%, 1.2iv
- Distance of race: 1900m to 2500m: 31.5% 1.6iv
- Negative: Runs from a spell: 1st up: 12.3% 0.6iv
Nick Ryan - Jockey combinations
The table below examines the trainer-jockey combinations under three conditions:
- When the horse is the Wrat 100 pointer and started at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
- When the horse runs as the race favourite at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
- When the horse starts at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
-
| From 01/08/2022 To 21/04/2024 | | 100 | | | | | fav | | | | | 2-5.9 | | |
| Nick Ryan with | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp |
| Billy Egan | 20.00% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00% | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6.30% | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| Blaike McDougall | - | - | - | - | - | 25.00% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20.00% | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| Blake Shinn | 25.00% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14.30% | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 30.00% | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| Damien Oliver | 0.00% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25.00% | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20.00% | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Jacob Opperman | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 100.00% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Noonan | - | - | - | - | - | 100.00% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamie Mott | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11.10% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| John Allen | 60.00% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 40.00% | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 57.10% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Mark Zahra | 50.00% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25.00% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 28.60% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Rhys McLeod | 33.30% | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 30.00% | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 25.00% | 6 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| TOM PREBBLE | 0.00% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 25.00% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14.30% | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Tahlia Hope | 0.00% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 66.70% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 66.70% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The statistics cover the stable's runners throughout Australia.
The period covered is from 1 August 2022, so last season and the current season. (Older results for trainer-jockey combinations not really relevant.)
Wizard Ratings Report week ending Sunday, April 21
Overall, the result last week for Wrat was 27.0% (87 winners from 324 races.)
From Monday to Sunday the daily results were: (18.0%, 31.5%, 37.0%, 30.0%, 25.5%, 22.5%, 26.0%).
A few of the more notable double-figure top-rated (100 pointer) winners last week: (the highlight was the 100/1 winner for Wizard Plus Expected Peak)
| Course | Date | Race | Tab | Horse | SP odds | Rating |
| CANBERRA | 19/04/2024 | 2 | 10 | Papaver Miner | 10/1 | Wrat |
| | | | | | | |
| Course | Date | Race | Tab | Horse | SP odds | Rating |
| CANBERRA | 19/04/2024 | 2 | 10 | Papaver Miner | 10/1 | Whcp |
| PINJARRA | 21/04/2024 | 5 | 6 | Don't Tell Nan | 10/1 | Whcp |
| | | | | | | |
| Course | Date | Race | Tab | Horse | SP odds | Rating |
| PAKENHAM | 18/04/2024 | 7 | 11 | Peppino | 100/1 | Wexpk |
| MORNINGTON | 20/04/2024 | 8 | 9 | Esti Feny | 30/1 | Wexpk |
| DALBY | 20/04/2024 | 2 | 8 | Drops From The Sky | 26/1 | Wexpk |
| BALLARAT | 16/04/2024 | 7 | 8 | Stardom Awaayts | 10/1 | Wexpk |
| CANBERRA | 19/04/2024 | 2 | 10 | Papaver Miner | 10/1 | Wexpk |
| PORT AUGUSTA | 21/04/2024 | 4 | 6 | Evening Bride | 10/1 | Wexpk |
The following table shows the where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
| Sun 21.04.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | w m h e |
| BENDIGO | g4 | - 3 - - | 1 1 1 2 | - 3 3 3 | 3 3 3 2 | - - - 3. | 3 1 2 - | 1 - 1 1 | 3 3 - - | | | 2 2 2 1 |
| HOBART | g4 | - - - - | 1 1 1. 2 | 1 1 1 - | 2 1 3 2 | 2 2 1 3 | 2 1 - - | 3 2 - - | 2 1 2 3 | | | 2 5 3. 0 |
| MUSWELLBROOK | h8 | 2 - 1 - | 3 3 1 - | - - - 2. | 3 - - - | - - - 2 | - - - - | - - - - | | | | 0 0 2 0 |
| PINJARRA | g4 | 1 1 2 3 | 1 1 1 3 | - - - 3 | 2 2 1. 1 | - - 1. 2. | - - 3 3 | 1 1 3. - | 1 2 2 - | | | 4 3 3. 1 |
| PORT AUGUSTA | g | - - - - | 1 3 - 1 | 2 2 - 1 | - - - 1. | - - - - | - 2 2 2 | 3 1. 3. 3. | | | | 1 1. 0 3. |
| WAGGA | g4 | 1 1 1 1 | - - - - | 1 1 1 2 | - - - - | 1 2 1 2 | - 3 - - | 2 - - 1 | - 2. 3. 2 | | | 3 2 3 2 |
Header: w m h e = Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), Wexpk (e)
For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com