BETTING ESSENTIALS - CC says: "Betting Essentials helps readers understand not just what to look for, but why it matters."
>>> Betting Essentials Extract <<<
Warren Block's Daily Report - Friday, 27 February 2026
- Betting Essentials Extract - Wagering - Losing Sequences
- Matrix day-by-day results for Friday and Saturday racing
- Wizard Freebie - The Wizard Matrix Report
- Wizard Ratings, Raceday, Matrix, and Selectives Results
Betting Essentials Extract - Wagering - Losing Sequences - pp143-144
Losing Sequences - Single-runner and Multi-runner
Most informed punters understand the concept of probability, as reflected in a horses odds, but few appreciate the impact it has on results over time when betting on many races.
Consider the longer-term difference between backing one horse a race which averages a 27% strike rate with the approach that backs two horses a race with a combined strike rate of 45%.
Both approaches are profitable when the winners prices represent value. The difference lies in the duration of losing runs, extent of bank drawdowns, and the psychological impact on the bettor when the winners are harder to find.
With the single-runner 27% chance there will be some 73 losers every hundred races. The two-horse bettor will experience around 55 losing races in one hundred races.
The single-runner bettor can expect to experience runs of 8 to 10 losing races in succession; theoretically the chance of 10 straight losers is around 4%, and a losing sequence of 18 or more is quite possible (around 1.5%). This is not a matter of bad luck, or bad selections, it is just the norm when betting 27% runners on a race-to-race basis.
Where the single-runner bettor faces the eight runs losing sequence, over the same series of races the two-horse bettor with a 45% combination bet is theoretically only half as likely to experience that run of outs
Losing Runs in the Real World
It is possible to bring some real-world results into this discussion of losing sequences and drawdowns by looking at the results of the Wizard top rated runners for Sydney in the 2024-2025 season, which is representative of other jurisdictions.
During this period, the Wizard top rater and top-two rated runners, which align with the 27% and 45% strike rates discussed above, recorded the following results.
The two-horse option had more than one and one half times the number of sequences, meaning more shorter runs of outs. Also noteworthy is the percentage of sequences that reflected back-to-back winning races, with the two-horse option being 42.5% compared to the 27.3% when backing only one runner.
Matrix day-by-day results for Friday and Saturday racing
The tables show the results for the past eight weeks for the day on which racing occurred. So, today being Friday, this Matrix DOW (Day of Week) report covers the past eight Friday and Saturday results. The day-after results are included so that they are available on race-eve, rather than only on race morning.
(The daily Matrix report aims to assist subscribers contain the number of bets to manageable proportions and improve the strike rate. The report is posted to our website between 10:30am and 10:45am each day with an update at 12 noon.)
Wizard Ratings, Raceday, Matrix, and Selectives results
We publish these full results daily so that subscribers can see the results of the Wizard's ratings options, and Report-content, and thereby formulate a selecting and betting strategy that suits them individually. The Wizard ratings should not be seen as "tips", rather as objective assessments that can be used to inform one's own judgement as to the relative chances of the runners in a race.
The full day-by-day results for Wizard (Wrat) top 4 rated runners, the Raceday Qualifier, and the Matrix (MaxR) 100 pointer, the MaxR top-two, the Matrix W1+MaxR100 qualifier, and the Matrix W1+*EO+MaxR100 qualifier. Also shown are the overall results for last week and the last four weeks. The 2023-2024 column shows the WRat results for the full 2023-2024 racing season. This results summary is colour coded so that it is easier for readers to track the relative performance of the Top Rated (blue) and Top-Two Rated (green) ratings options on a daily, and longer term, basis. The best overall qualifier (yellow) is also highlighted.
The following table shows this week's results of alternative options with respect to possible Matrix Selectives combinations, as well as weekly summaries. These combinations are accessible via the Wizard MATRIX report which is posted to our website between 10:30am and 10:45am each day.
(Key: The first of the two columns for each Selective combination shows number of qualifying races and the second column shows the strike rate. Headings: RWM is Raceday,Watch,Magic, RWM 2/3 means two or three qualifying, Rday is Raceday report qualifier , Magic is Magic report qualifier, R/M is Raceday and Magic, WR1 is Wrat 100, MR1 is MaxR 100.)
The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by WRat, WMod, WHcp, and WExpk and was the qualifier in the Wizard Raceday Report. (Note: The Wrat [W] winner results report on both the top rated and top-two rated winners.) The Raceday Report winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there were two qualifiers in a race.
Header: WMHER = WRat (W), WMod (M), WHcp (H), WExpk (E), Raceday (R).
For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results